Furniture consumption has entered a period of rapid growth in the long term, and the industry is expected to grow by 8.1% in 2012. With reference to the American experience, after the average American income reached 3,000 US dollars in the late 1960s, furniture consumption increased sharply, and the growth momentum continued to this day. In 2011, China's urban residents' income has exceeded 3,000 US dollars, and will enter furniture and other products in the future. The long-term rapid growth period of consumption. At present, the per capita furniture consumption in China is less than 300 yuan, which has a lot of room for growth compared with international developed countries.
We use the completion area of â€‹â€‹the construction industry in 2010 as the base to estimate that China's furniture consumption per square meter in 2011 is about 131 yuan. According to the estimated completion area of â€‹â€‹buildings in 2012, the total domestic furniture consumption in 2012 can reach 406.2 billion. Assuming that the import and export remain unchanged, it is conservatively estimated that the total output value of China's furniture industry in 2012 is expected to reach 515.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%.
Furniture market consumption has entered a period of rapid growth
Furniture consumption troika: income growth, real estate recovery, export competitiveness is still there. In the short-term, the domestic furniture consumption is full of spurs and the income of residents is growing steadily. At the same time, the peak of marriage and childbirth has just brought about the promotion of real estate transactions, and the second-tier cities have increased by about 25% from January to May. Finally, as the export business of early-stage furniture, The recovery was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 15.88% in April, and China's export value accounted for a steady increase in the proportion of the world's furniture trade, which proves that domestic furniture export competitiveness is still strong.
After "fixing" and "moving", all major positioning markets have their own success. The furniture market is vast. We believe that the success of furniture companies must first segment customers, find a reasonable position, and then seek relevant areas to find the core focus. We believe that each field has its own success: high-end market companies need to strengthen their brand image, pay attention to design, focus on niche market and develop direct sales channels, such as the international Herman Miller brand; mid-end companies pay attention to product cost performance, develop franchisee channels Such as the international IKEA brand; low-end companies give up brand strategy, bind large customers, become their core OEM or ODM manufacturers.
Investment strategy and recommendations:
Short-term long-term factors are good for investment in the furniture industry, and it is recommended to focus on the mid-end furniture companies. Regardless of the long-term development trend and short-term market conditions, we all judge the investment opportunities of the furniture industry, but we recommend investors to pay more attention to the production of mid-end furniture. Although each market has a successful way, only the mid-end market is the most extensive and growing fast, while the high-end market, despite its outstanding brand, is a niche market with limited development space and volatile demand. We can see from the example of the IKEA and Miller brands that the growth of the high-end market is often weak, but the mid-end market has no ceiling.
Catalysts: Real estate transactions have grown substantially, exports have picked up, and industry subsidies for old-for-new subsidies have been introduced. We noticed that real estate transactions have bottomed out since April and May, and export growth has accelerated. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce has publicly supported the policy of replacing old furniture with new ones. It is expected that relevant policies may be introduced in July, and our estimation policy is expected to boost furniture consumption by about 15%. Factors: The linkage between real estate and furniture is obvious, and the rapid decline in real estate transactions affects the growth of furniture consumption.
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